2026 Iran war

Ceasefire

On April 7–8 Trump announced on social media that he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan. Moments later, Iranian officials confirmed that Khamenei had approved the ceasefire after a last-minute nudge by China. Transportation through the Strait of Hormuz continued to move at a trickle and remained a major point of contention in efforts to forge a more lasting ceasefire. Direct negotiations took place in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11–12 between U.S. Vice Pres. JD Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf—the highest-level direct engagement between the United States and Iran since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. But when those talks failed to produce an agreement, Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to begin a blockade of the strait to prevent the passage of any ships transiting through Iranian ports. As the ceasefire’s two-week deadline came to a close, Trump announced that the United States would continue to cease fire until the Iranian delegation could present the U.S. delegation with a proposal to end the war that was backed by all factions of the Iranian government. No deadline was set for the extension of the U.S. ceasefire, and proposals put forward by either side to end the war were met with rejection in the weeks ahead.

Conflict in Lebanon

The conflict also saw the resumption of hostilities between Israel and Iran’s close ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, which had been observing a fragile ceasefire since 2024 (see Israel-Hezbollah war). Despite the ceasefire, which required the disarmament of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah had been seeking to restore its military capabilities and the IDF had continued to strike targets in southern Lebanon almost daily. After the opening wave of attacks on Iran on February 28, the IDF conducted air strikes on Hezbollah’s infrastructure and warned the militant group against getting involved in the conflict with Iran. On March 2, Hezbollah launched missiles and drones into Israel, prompting an escalation in Israeli air strikes that reached north to southern Beirut. A drone believed to have been launched by Hezbollah also struck a base in Cyprus used by the British Royal Air Force. In the following days Israel issued sweeping evacuation orders across southern Lebanon, displacing more than 1,100,000 people by late March.

A limited invasion began on March 17 amid reports that a broader ground offensive was likely. On March 24 Israeli minister of defense Israel Katz announced plans for the IDF to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River, a swath of territory that the IDF had previously occupied in 1982 during the Lebanese Civil War (1975–90) until Israeli forces withdrew in 2000.

After the United States and Iran announced their ceasefire in early April, there was disagreement among the parties on whether Lebanon was included. Just hours after the announcement the IDF conducted a blitz across Lebanon that killed hundreds of people and wounded more than 1,000 others, straining the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The United States then pushed Israel to lower the temperature and engage in negotiations to end the conflict in Lebanon. On April 14 the United States hosted the highest level engagement between Israel and Lebanon since 1993 and, on April 16, Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah that was set to begin the following day. A week later the formal ceasefire was extended by three weeks, although Israel and Hezbollah traded frequent fire during that period. Commitments to a ceasefire were repeatedly renewed, but few signs indicated that an end to the hostilities was in sight. On May 30 IDF ground forces crossed north of the Litani River for the first time since the 2006 Lebanon War, a 34-day confrontation between the IDF and Hezbollah after Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others during a cross-border attack.

Crack in the ceasefire

Tensions ebbed and flowed throughout the duration of the ceasefire reached by the United States and Iran, although it largely held. Attacks took place, albeit infrequently and with restraint, while negotiations reportedly came close in May to producing a memorandum of understanding that would lead to the war’s end. Among the clearest obstacles, however, was the ongoing conflict in Lebanon. Iran continued to press for an end to Israeli attacks in Lebanon as a condition for any lasting end to the war with the United States and Israel. After the IDF struck southern Beirut on June 7, days after the latest ceasefire in the Lebanon conflict, Iran launched waves of ballistic missiles toward Israel and prompted retaliation from Israel. The brief exchange of fire marked the first time since the ceasefire in early April that Iran and Israel had engaged in direct confrontation. Renewed IDF strikes in the Beirut area on June 14 reportedly prompted Iran to respond once more, but intervention from the United States prevented the retaliation from taking place so that a memorandum of understanding could move forward.

Memorandum of understanding

On June 14 Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan and a key mediator, announced that the United States and Iran had finalized a memorandum of understanding. Minutes later Trump announced on social media the immediate lifting of the U.S. naval blockade of ships in the Strait of Hormuz that had docked at Iranian ports. The memorandum included the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon, an end to Iranian restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz and a reduction of U.S. military assets from the region, as well as relief of sanctions on Iran and an economic commitment to a reconstruction and development plan for Iran. The deal, which was signed on June 17 by Trump and Iranian Pres. Masoud Pezeshkian, set a 60-day timeline for an agreement on the unresolved issue of Iran’s nuclear program, although the memorandum secured Iran’s reaffirmation that it would not pursue a nuclear weapon.

But the provision of the memorandum regarding the Strait of Hormuz remained a matter of conflict:

Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman, and vice versa…The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states, in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

Although the United States interpreted the wording as requiring Iran to guarantee safe passage of commercial vessels through the strait, Iran considered it to be recognition of its role in controlling traffic and charging administration fees after a 60-day period. Shortly after the conclusion of the memorandum Iran warned ships that it would guarantee safe passage only under the routes and protocols established by Iran in May and the IRGC threatened ships that were not in compliance.

Continued fighting over the Strait of Hormuz

The disagreement between the United States and Iran came to a head on July 6 and 7, when the IRGC struck three ships as they were passing through the strait along the Omani coast, a route that was recommended by the United States. On July 7, as the U.S. forces stepped up its attacks on Iranian assets, Trump said that he considered the truce to be over. Over the following week, U.S. forces hit about 140 targets with more than 300 strikes. On July 14 the U.S. Navy reimposed its blockade on ships passing through Iranian ports. Two U.S. service members were killed during strikes on a U.S. base in Jordan on July 17, further escalating the renewed hostilities. On July 18 Iranian officials said they were suspending Iran’s commitments under the memorandum of understanding. Following about three weeks of military exchanges between the two countries, conflict virtually ceased through most of August, except for a handful of limited drone attacks by Iran on targets in the Gulf Arab states.

In late August the U.S. military announced that it had cleared all mines laid by Iran in the international shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing Iran’s ability to restrict movement through the strait. Days later U.S. forces attacked Larak Island, a small Iranian island in the strait that included a military outpost and was used to monitor traffic through the strait, and claimed Iranian forces were attempting to launch new mines from the island. The strikes led to Iranian retaliation and a new round of exchange of fire, with U.S. forces taking particular aim in September at Iranian oil tankers.

Initial reactions

The outbreak of conflict between three widely impactful countries led to a burst of reactions, ranging from anticipation to condemnation to confrontation. Many observers, including Iranians in the diaspora, hoped for the collapse of the oppressive Islamic Republic of Iran and a decisive end to its nuclear program and military reach. Within Iran, some Iranians celebrated Khamenei’s death while proponents of the regime mourned; security forces stepped up their presence in Tehran to crack down on celebrations and public dissent. Oman, which attempted to mediate negotiations between the United States and Iran, expressed disappointment that the “active and serious negotiations” were abandoned. Russia, Iran’s ally, condemned the U.S. and Israeli strikes as destabilizing but showed little interest in intervening on Iran’s behalf. Some countries questioned the legal basis of the initial U.S. and Israeli attack, while others urged Iran to show restraint in its response and condemned its attacks on its neighbors. Spain, a NATO member that had already squabbled with U.S. demands during the second Trump administration, refused to allow the United States to use its air bases, leading Trump to threaten to cut trade with the country.

Global economic impact and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz

The war had immediate impacts on global travel and trade. Flights in and out of the Middle East came to a near-complete stop, stranding residents, expatriates, and tourists alike, even as Iran struck the region’s most crowded cities and luxury hotels. When Dubai International Airport, one of the world’s busiest, was damaged by drone strikes during the second day of the conflict, it temporarily halted all flights and reopened in only a limited capacity a few days later.

Shipping lines rerouted to avoid the Strait of Hormuz—even before Iran threatened to fire on ships passing through the strait—as well as the Red Sea, where the Iran-allied Houthi movement had previously attacked ships in response to the Israel-Hamas War. Although commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped more than 90 percent after the outbreak of conflict, Iran’s attacks on traffic in March caused a further decline. It then selectively approved the transit of some ships, including some Iranian ships, some ships belonging to countries that negotiated safe passage with Iran, and some ships that were willing to pay Iran a hefty toll. The disruption of oil flows out of the Persian Gulf quickly led to fuel shortages and rationing in parts of Asia east of the gulf, which rely heavily on oil supplied through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a sharp increase in price in the global oil market. Prices surged from about $70 per barrel just before the war to an average of $103 per barrel in March.

The United Arab Emirates was able to export roughly half of its daily oil production through its ports in the Fujairah emirate, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz; Saudi Arabia was able to route more than half of its daily oil production through its Red Sea terminals until July, when its Red Sea exports fell substantially after Houthi fighters declared a blockade on Saudi shipping. Several of the Gulf Arab states began exploring possible export routes through Syria to the Mediterranean Sea. While the increase was disruptive for much of the global economy, the surge led to a windfall for Iran, which in March saw an average boost in oil revenue of nearly $25 million per day, and Russia, which saw an average increase of about $150 million per day in the same period.

That windfall for Iran was disrupted, however, when on April 13 the U.S. Navy began preventing ships that had docked at Iranian ports from passing through the strait. The U.S. blockade threatened to strain Iran’s economy as it prevented the import of staple goods and Iran’s storage for exports was set to reach capacity in May, potentially forcing reductions in oil production that could be costly to reverse. On May 4 U.S. forces undertook an operation (dubbed Project Freedom) to guide vessels stranded in the Persian Gulf through the strait. Two U.S.-flagged commercial vessels passed through the strait, but the operation was reportedly met with deadly confrontations between U.S. and Iranian forces. Iran also struck multiple oil infrastructure targets in the United Arab Emirates. On May 5 Trump announced the operation would be paused amid “great progress” toward a deal with Iran. That same day Iran announced the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), which attempted to establish protocols for transit through the strait and implement a toll regime.

U.S. operations in the coming months continued to focus on the Strait of Hormuz. A memorandum of understanding in June failed to bring the conflict to an end after Iran and the United States quickly disagreed over the memorandum’s provisions regarding the strait. Iran continued to direct traffic through the PGSA and the U.S. Navy subsequently renewed its blockade of Iranian ports. Meanwhile, according to U.S. officials in August, the U.S. military had established a corridor along the coast of Oman allowing the daily passage of 15–20 tankers and up to 10 million barrels of oil, nearly half of the prewar amount. Later that month the U.S. military claimed it had removed all mines laid by Iran in the international shipping lanes, reducing Iran’s ability to restrict movement through the strait. In mid-October oil exports from the Gulf Arab states reached prewar levels, although the proportion of exports delivered by pipeline was more than twice as much as before the war.