What is the U.S. monthly retail sales report and why does it matter?

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Tracking the cash registers, and the e-commerce clicks and taps.

© Lindsey Nicholson—UCG/Universal Images Group/Getty Images

Did you buy anything last month, like groceries, clothing, or a knickknack for the shelf in the corner? How about a new smartphone or perhaps even a car?

Congratulations. You and your stuff are part of a key monthly statistic: The monthly retail sales report.

Each month, the U.S. Census Bureau delivers a detailed report on the economic health of consumers, as measured by sales of goods and services at the retail level. It’s a key gauge—used by government policymakers, Wall Street analysts, and everyday investors—of how and where we all spent our money the month before. Because consumer spending represents some 70% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), the results are considered a harbinger of what might be ahead on the economic front.

The Advanced Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (“MARTS”) is released at 8:30 a.m. ET around the middle of each month. It can also be used to detect inflationary pressures, and it’s one of the key metrics the Federal Reserve takes into account as it contemplates U.S. monetary policy.

Investors and traders often watch for the retail report to catch a glimpse of what’s ahead for sales and profits of the nation’s publicly held retailers, as well as the manufacturers that make their products. Sales trends—and expectations of future trends—can have an outsize effect on retailers and the broader market (see figure 1).

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Figure 1: RETAIL AND ECONOMIC VOLATILITY. In the 10-year period from 2013 to 2023, the S&P Retail SPDR ETF (XRT, candlestick chart) saw periods of stagnation and underperformance versus the broad-based S&P 500 Index (SPX, blue line) before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. They were particularly volatile—first way down, then way up—in 2020 and 2021.

Source: Barchart.com; Annotations by Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.

Although the advanced retail sales survey (MARTS) is the one that gets the headlines each month, MARTS is actually a randomized sample of a larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (“MRTS”) data set. To calculate the MARTS data set each month, the Census Bureau pulls a random sample set of roughly 4,800 retail companies (and company business units) from the MRTS pool and asks them to respond to a questionnaire. The results are weighted by category and seasonally adjusted to account for holidays and other annual trends.

Responses are voluntary and confidential. The report aggregates total receipts at retail and food services stores that sell merchandise and related services to consumers, all considered finished goods. The retailers supply data on the dollar value of retail sales; some also give data on the value of end-of-month inventories.

Retail sales are divided into 13 categories:

You’ll often hear about retail sales minus autos, gas, and/or food. But why strip food and gas out when they’re among the main products consumers purchase daily—and the ones we can least go without?

It’s because in these categories, price changes can happen much more frequently—and often without warning—compared to other categories. Gas prices, for example, aren’t always just a function of consumer demand, but also world supply. Food prices can jump or drop based on weather issues or animal diseases. Because these volatile categories can skew the data, it’s best to look at overall retail trends both with and without the volatile food, energy, and auto categories.

The MARTS report is valuable for its wide-ranging collection of data and its timeliness. Although some have argued it acts more as a lagging indicator than a forward one, the monthly retail sales report offers the clearest pulse of consumer spending, and, in effect, consumer confidence in spending.

If consumers are buying a lot of big-ticket items such as cars, appliances, and furniture, it typically means they feel financially flush and the economy is booming. If they are tightening their purse strings, it can indicate potential tough times ahead, including a recessionary period.

If the Federal Reserve sees that consumers are overspending, creating more demand for supplies and driving up prices, it might opt to raise interest rates to slow the economy down. On the flip side, if consumers are not purchasing discretionary items and are seeking cheaper alternatives for everyday household products, that’s usually a recessionary signal. It could prompt the Fed to lower interest rates to induce spending.

Most months, the numbers get readjusted up or down, depending on when final reports roll in. Sometimes a limited number of companies fail to respond to the surveys. If a company that hasn’t responded has what the Census Bureau calls “influential effects on the estimates,” the bureau will pull numbers based on the historical performance of the company.

The report’s biggest impact is on the GDP, which measures production capacity and economic growth (the size and strength of the economy). When the monthly retail sales reports are consecutively on the rise, it means the economy—and the people who work in it and fuel its growth—is robust. When the reverse is true, it could be time to brace for unemployment and business closings if a deep recessionary period ensues.

Considering the MARTS report offers the government’s most current and accurate data on spending activity, it’s a valuable tool for setting monetary policy and a bevy of other government statistics, plus business and industry forecasts. In addition to the Fed:

The monthly retail sales report offers deep and timely insight into how the economy is functioning. Tracking those numbers and the rise and fall in each category over short and long periods provides key metrics that help the government, the Federal Reserve, businesses, and consumers forecast how the economy will move forward and how to prepare accordingly.

Specific companies and funds are mentioned in this article for educational purposes only and not as an endorsement.