Private economic reports: What they can tell you about the economy

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Government data aren’t the only numbers worth watching.

© Jess rodriguez/stock.adobe.com

Government reports provide some of the most closely watched measures of the U.S. economy, from employment and inflation to consumer spending and economic growth. But they aren’t the only sources of economic data.

Private organizations also publish surveys, payroll data, retail spending measures, and other indicators that can provide an earlier or different view of economic conditions. Used alongside government reports, these measures can help provide a fuller picture of where the economy has been and where it may be headed.

For investors, economic data can be part of the due diligence that goes into evaluating an investment, because changes in growth, employment, and inflation can influence fiscal and monetary policy as well as financial markets.

Private economic data cover everything from employment and retail sales to what businesses and consumers are thinking. These reports can offer a different perspective on familiar government data.

Published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), these reports use surveys of purchasing and supply executives to track changes in the manufacturing and services sectors. In addition to overall activity, the reports track measures such as new orders, employment, prices, inventories, and supplier deliveries.

Published monthly by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, the ADP National Employment Report tracks private-sector employment using anonymized payroll data from more than 26 million U.S. workers. The report also tracks pay growth and breaks down employment changes by industry, business size, and region.

Two widely followed surveys measure how people view their finances and the broader economy. The University of Michigan’s monthly Surveys of Consumers produces the Index of Consumer Sentiment, along with indexes of current economic conditions and consumer expectations. The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Survey measures consumers’ views of current business and labor market conditions and their expectations for income, business conditions, and employment in the months ahead. It also tracks buying intentions and expectations for inflation, interest rates, and stock prices.

The monthly CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor uses credit card and debit card transactions to track retail spending. It measures both total retail sales, excluding auto dealers and gas stations, and core retail sales, which further excludes restaurants.

The monthly Challenger Job Cut Report, published by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, tracks job cuts announced by U.S. employers. The report breaks down planned cuts by industry and the reasons employers give for them, and also tracks announced hiring plans.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) combines 10 economic indicators to help identify potential turning points in the business cycle. Its components include initial unemployment claims, manufacturing orders, building permits, stock prices, interest rates, and consumer expectations.

No single economic report can capture everything happening in the economy. Government statistics remain essential, but private reports can add context through different data, methodologies, and timing.

For investors, the value comes from understanding what each report measures and how it fits into the broader economic picture. That context can help make sense of the conditions shaping businesses, consumers, and financial markets.