Playing your own retirement hand

Editor’s note: This article first appeared in Money Matters, a newsletter from Britannica Money, on July 22, 2026.

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Are you playing the wrong retirement game?

© Ievgen Skrypko, Esin Deniz, IconLauk, Vasyl Yurlov/stock.adobe.com; Photo illustration Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc.

Back when I was writing for a major brokerage firm, gambling analogies were strictly forbidden, and for good reason. Investing, retirement savings, and even an active trading strategy should never be conflated with low-odds, the-house-always-wins betting. But sometimes it’s the best way to trigger a lightbulb moment, so here goes.

In blackjack, it’s you against the house. Hit the right number versus the “benchmark” set by the dealer, and you win. The other players at the table have no bearing on the outcome of your stake. In poker, however, you’re playing against the other players at the table, and even a terrible hand can take the pot if you play it right.

We tend to think about retirement like poker. Every few months there’s another survey telling us how much the average 40-year-old has saved or how many times our salary should already be sitting in a retirement account. Those numbers can be useful. But they also encourage us to keep score against everyone else, when the only score that really matters is whether our own plan is likely to get us where we want to go.

Every year, Vanguard publishes its How America Saves report. It’s a treasure trove of data on retirement savings, participation rates, contribution levels, and investing behavior. But one table always seems to get the headlines: average retirement account balances by age.

For example, this year’s report found that defined contribution plan participants ages 35 to 44 had an average balance of about $121,000, while those who are 55 to 64 averaged about $305,000. I suppose that’s useful information—if you’re decades behind your peers, you might be motivated to do something about it while there’s still time.

But I’ve been following studies like this one for years, and it seems they always lead to the same conclusion: We’re not saving enough for retirement. While there may be some truth to that, over time, it feels like the goalposts keep moving. No matter how much you’ve saved, there’s always another study suggesting you’ll need more.

That’s where I think we start playing poker instead of blackjack. It’s natural to compare ourselves with the averages—or with siblings, coworkers, friends, and neighbors—but their net worth isn’t the number to beat. A comfortable retirement depends on whether your savings, spending, and retirement goals line up.

How long will you live? What kind of health will you enjoy? When do you hope to retire—and will life agree to your plan? Plenty of retirements begin earlier or later than planned because of health issues, family obligations, or an unexpected job change. And do you plan to spend your days traveling, golfing, or spoiling the grandkids?

Granted, sometimes you really are competing with everyone else—but not because they have a bigger retirement account. If your dream is a waterfront condo in Naples, Florida, you’re competing with everyone else who wants one, too—and there aren’t enough to go around. Still, the benchmark isn’t your neighbor’s 401(k). It’s the price of the retirement you’re trying to buy.

That’s why retirement calculators (such as Britannica Money’s) ask so many questions before they produce an answer. They’re not trying to predict the future. They’re helping you estimate what your version of retirement is likely to cost so you can decide whether you’re on pace to get there.

Poker players spend as much time watching everyone else at the table as they do looking at their own cards. Retirement planning should take the opposite approach. Here are three questions that can guide your retirement planning far more than any retirement benchmark ever could.

Play your own hand. The players around you might hit 21 three hands in a row, while others seem to bust every time. None of that changes the cards in front of you. Review your plan from time to time, make adjustments when life changes, and keep your focus on the only number that really matters: The cost of the retirement you want.