subjective probability

Subjective probability is a measure of uncertainty that varies from person to person. It's used when phenomena aren't repeatable, such as assessing the likelihood of a scientific theory being true or a historical event occurring.1

This concept is crucial in decision-making under incomplete knowledge. Individuals can express their preferences and uncertainties in a way that aligns with rational behavior, allowing for the calculation of expected utility based on personal beliefs and probabilities.1

The mathematical theory of probability remains the same regardless of interpretation, but subjective probability plays a significant role in Bayesian analysis. This method combines prior information with new evidence to update probabilities, though different individuals may arrive at different conclusions due to varying initial subjective probabilities.12