spiral of silence

spiral of silence, in the study of human communication and public opinion, the theory that people’s willingness to express their opinions on controversial public issues is affected by their largely unconscious perception of those opinions as being either popular or unpopular. Specifically, the perception that one’s opinion is unpopular tends to inhibit or discourage one’s expression of it, while the perception that it is popular tends to have the opposite effect. Developed by German survey and communication researcher Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann in the 1960s and ’70s, the spiral of silence theory more broadly attempts to describe collective opinion formation and societal decision making regarding issues that are controversial or morally loaded.

In the context of the theory, the term public opinion refers to opinions or behaviour that can be displayed or expressed in public without running the risk of social isolation or, in some cases, that even must be displayed to avoid the danger of isolation. Thus, public is not meant in a legal or political sense—as something that is freely accessible to all or that concerns the general population or society as a whole. Instead, the concept is interpreted from a social-psychological perspective as a state of consciousness in which individuals are aware that their actions are “seen by all” or “heard by all,” requiring that they constantly monitor not only their own actions but also the reactions of others in their environment. Accordingly, Noelle-Neumann viewed public opinion as a form of social control that ultimately applies to everyone, regardless of social class, and that is apparent in many areas of life, ranging from controversial political issues to fashion, morals, and values. Such an understanding of public opinion differs markedly from the traditional conception, according to which most people’s opinions on public issues are influenced by rational debate among educated elites.

Origins of the theory

The theory of the spiral of silence arose from a surprising discovery in connection with election research conducted during the 1965 German federal election campaign. Months before election day in September 1965, Noelle-Neumann and her staff at the Allensbach Institute for Public Opinion Research launched a series of surveys designed to track the political opinions of the electorate throughout the campaign. From December 1964 to shortly before election day, survey findings on voters’ intentions remained practically unchanged. Month after month, the two major parties, the governing Christian Democratic Union–Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) and the opposing Social Democratic Party of Germany (SDP), were in a dead heat, with about 45 percent of the population intending to vote for each party. Under such circumstances, it seemed impossible to predict which party was most likely to win the election.

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In the final few weeks of the campaign, however, the situation suddenly changed, with survey findings showing a last-minute swing in favour of the CDU-CSU. The percentage of respondents who said that they intended to vote for the CDU-CSU suddenly climbed to almost 50 percent, while the share that intended to vote for the SDP dropped to less than 40 percent. In the end, the result of the election confirmed those findings: the CDU-CSU won with 48 percent of the vote, as against 39 percent for the SDP.

Interestingly, while voters’ intentions remained unchanged over the course of many months, their expectations regarding the outcome of the election shifted dramatically during the same period. In December 1964, the percentage of respondents who expected the SDP to win was about the same as the share who anticipated a CDU-CSU victory. But then the results began to change: the percentage of respondents who expected a CDU-CSU victory rose continuously, while the SDP lost ground. By as early as July 1965, the CDU-CSU was clearly in the lead regarding voters’ expectations, and by August, almost 50 percent expected that it would win. Late in the campaign the bandwagon effect came into play, as a sizeable number of former SDP supporters or undecided voters cast their ballots for the party they expected to be victorious.

How could party strength have remained constant for so long while expectations as to who would win changed so dramatically? Noelle-Neumann suspected that a visit by Queen Elizabeth II to Germany in May 1965, during which she was often accompanied by the Christian Democratic German chancellor, Ludwig Erhard, may have created an optimistic mood among supporters of the CDU, prompting them to publicly proclaim their political convictions. As a result, supporters of the SDP may have (wrongly) concluded that their opponents’ opinions were more popular than their own and that therefore the CDU would win. SDP supporters were accordingly discouraged from publicly articulating their own views, reinforcing the impression that the CDU was more popular and more likely to be victorious.

Key elements of the theory

According to the spiral of silence theory, most people have a natural—and mostly unconscious—fear of social isolation that prompts them to constantly monitor the behaviour of others for signs of approval or disapproval. People also issue their own “threats” of isolation—mostly unconsciously—through behaviour such as criticizing someone, turning away from someone, scowling at someone, laughing at someone, and so on. To avoid isolation, people tend to refrain from publicly stating their views on controversial matters when they perceive that doing so would attract criticism, scorn, laughter, or other signs of disapproval. Conversely, those who sense that their opinions will meet with approval tend to voice them fearlessly and at times vociferously. Indeed, speaking out in such a way tends to enhance the threat of isolation faced by supporters of the opposing position, reinforcing their sense of being alone. Thus a spiraling process begins, the dominant camp becoming ever louder and more self-confident while the other camp becomes increasingly silent.

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Importantly, the spiral of silence occurs only in connection with controversial issues that have a strong moral component. What triggers a person’s fear of isolation is the belief that others will consider him or her not merely mistaken but morally bad. Accordingly, issues that lack a moral component or on which there is general consensus leave no room for a spiral of silence.

As demonstrated by the 1965 German federal election and other examples, the actual popularity of an opinion does not necessarily determine whether it will eventually predominate over opposing views. An opinion can be dominant in public discourse even if a majority of the population actually disagrees with it, provided that most people (falsely) believe that the view is unpopular and refrain from expressing it for fear of being isolated.

Public opinion is limited by time and place. With few exceptions, a spiral of silence holds sway over only a single society (a nation or cultural group) and for only a limited period. When viewed in hindsight or from an outsider’s perspective, it is sometimes hard to comprehend the agitation and emotional fervour that can accompany a spiral of silence.