Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias, the tendency, upon learning an outcome of an event—such as an experiment, a sporting event, a military decision, or a political election—to overestimate one’s ability to have foreseen the outcome. Hindsight bias is colloquially known as the “I knew it all along phenomenon.” It is a type of confirmation bias.

(Read Steven Pinker’s Britannica entry on rationality.)

Presented with two opposing predictions, most people are able to justify the likelihood of either outcome. For example, when asked whether people prefer to spend time with others who are similar or with others who differ significantly (in beliefs, background, and the like), individuals can easily explain why either outcome is likely, often by drawing on conventional wisdom: some may claim that “birds of a feather flock together,” whereas others may argue that “opposites attract.” Once an experiment has shown support for only one outcome, however, participants often believe that the result is “obvious,” and they minimize or do not even entertain the alternative reasoning. That retroactive belief that the outcome was obvious from the start is hindsight bias.

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Although hindsight bias can be identified throughout human history, the phenomenon was first described and studied as such in the 1970s by psychologists who were investigating errors in human decision making. Early studies asked people almanac-type trivia questions or had them make predictions of political elections; participants were later asked to recall their predictions. Hindsight bias was evident when people overestimated the accuracy of their predictions. Subsequent investigations into the causes and the consequences of hindsight bias determined that the phenomenon is widespread and difficult to avoid. It occurs across individuals regardless of age, gender, or culture, and it happens across a wide range of situations. The situations range from relatively mild to world changing. The “Monday morning quarterback,” derived from gridiron football, illustrates a mild example. It describes the fan who second-guesses decisions made during a game from the perspective of knowing the outcome of those decisions. More-drastic examples of hindsight bias occurred with criticism of counterterrorism agencies and the U.S. military after the September 11, 2001, attacks for missing “obvious” warning signs.

At least two motivations underlie hindsight bias. First, the motivation to have a predictable world causes hindsight bias when observers watch decision makers. For example, moderately surprising outcomes violate people’s expectations and may trigger a negative state that people are motivated to reduce. Distorting prior predictions might enhance feelings of a predictable world and reduce the negative state. On the other hand, extremely surprising outcomes may cause people to say that they never could have predicted the outcome anyway, thereby reducing hindsight bias. (Still further, black swan events create outcomes that are so disruptive that people are forced to embrace the new worldview that these events impose and thus see them as inevitable—a form, arguably, of compelled hindsight bias.) Second, when people reflect on their own decision making, they have something at stake in the results of their decisions. Ego-enhancing motivational strategies also show up. For example, research has demonstrated that when the results of their own choices were positive, decision makers showed hindsight bias (e.g., “I knew I would succeed”). When the results were negative (e.g., “My idea should have worked”), decision makers do not show hindsight bias. Research has also shown that hindsight bias is likely due to memory errors (such as errors in recalling the initial prediction) and fixating on the eventual outcome.