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doctrine of the maturity of the chances

gambling
Also known as: Monte Carlo fallacy, gambler’s fallacy

Quick Summary

The "maturity of chances" is a gambling system based on the incorrect assumption that past events influence future outcomes in games of chance. This is contrary to the law of large numbers, a theorem in statistics. The law of large numbers states that as the number of random events increases, their average outcome will approach the theoretical probability. For example, in coin tossing, while a few initial tosses might not yield a 50/50 split of heads and tails, over a very large number of tosses, the results will converge towards that 50 percent probability. This principle means that each event in a series of independent random events has the same probability of occurring, regardless of previous results.123

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