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The 3.5% rule refers to the assertion that if at least 3.5% of a country’s population has actively opposed the government during a “peak” (significant) event, then that government will not be able to withstand the challenge. The claim was first presented by Erica Chenoweth (they/them), a political scientist, in 2013 at a TEDx Talk about the success of nonviolent civil resistance. The rule came from Chenoweth’s 2013 review of their dataset of 323 “campaigns”—i.e.,...