Juglar cycle

economics

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Last updated

June 29, 2026

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The Juglar cycle, named after French economist Joseph C. Juglar, refers to a business cycle with a periodicity of approximately nine years. This cycle is considered a major economic cycle and is characterized by three phases: prosperity, crisis, and liquidation.12

The concept of business cycles, or periodic fluctuations in economic activity, was explored by Juglar in 1860. These cycles are measured by changes in employment, prices, and production. While the Juglar cycle is a significant component of economic fluctuations, other shorter and longer cycles also exist, such as inventory cycles (around 40 months) and Kondratieff waves (averaging 50 years). Understanding these cycles is crucial for economic forecasting and analyzing patterns of economic growth and recession.2

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business cycle
The Juglar cycle
The first authority to explore economic cycles as periodically recurring phenomena was the French physician and statistician Clément Juglar, who in 1860 identified cycles based on a periodicity of roughly 8 to 11 years. Scholars who developed Juglar’s approach further distinguished three phases,…
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The first authority to explore economic cycles as periodically recurring phenomena was the French physician and statistician Clément Juglar, who in 1860 identified cycles based on a periodicity of roughly 8 to 11 years. Scholars who developed Juglar’s approach further distinguished three phases,…
Read More