persistence

In meteorology, "persistence" refers to a type of weather forecasting that assumes future weather will be similar to current or recent conditions. For example, if a summer has been warm, a persistence forecast might predict that the following spring will also be warm. While this method is considered a "no-skill" forecast by many meteorologists, it has historically been used, particularly in long-range forecasting, alongside other techniques like the analog method.1

Weather itself is defined as the state of the atmosphere over a short period, encompassing elements like temperature, humidity, precipitation, air pressure, wind, and cloud cover. This differs from climate, which represents the synthesis of weather conditions over a long period, generally 30 years.2