Abiy Ahmed

Changes, reforms, and the Nobel Prize for Peace

Almost immediately Abiy made efforts to bring about dramatic changes regarding strengthening the democratic process, improving the economy, and resolving the country’s long-standing border conflict with Eritrea. In his first year thousands of political prisoners were released, and some opposition groups were removed from the government’s list of organizations that it deemed to be terrorist groups. He later signed a peace agreement with one of the groups, which was designed to end more than 30 years of conflict in the Ogaden region. Measures to encourage investment and boost economic growth were also unveiled. Abiy formed a new cabinet, distinguished not only for its smaller size but also for the number of women that Abiy appointed, which meant that the country had its first gender-balanced cabinet.

The most significant achievement of Abiy and the EPRDF-led government was dramatic progress made in the attempts to find peace with Eritrea. Abiy announced on June 5, 2018, that Ethiopia would adhere to the terms of the 2000 peace agreement that had been intended to end the border war with Eritrea that had begun in 1998. This included accepting and implementing the 2002 ruling that demarcated the border between the two countries, which Ethiopia had previously rejected. The next month, Abiy went to Eritrea to meet with that country’s president, Isaias Afwerki. The two leaders agreed to reestablish ties between the two countries in the areas of diplomacy, trade, communications, and transportation as well as to reopen their borders. This was followed by a momentous joint statement from Abiy and Isaias on July 9 declaring that the state of war that had existed between their two countries for 20 years had come to an end. Abiy also engaged in resolving other regional conflicts, serving as a mediator in conflicts between Eritrea and Djibouti and between Kenya and Somalia, and in Sudan’s 2019 civil conflict. In 2019 Abiy was the recipient of the Nobel Prize for Peace for his efforts to resolve Ethiopia’s border conflict with Eritrea and broader efforts to promote peace and international cooperation.

Opposition, conflict, and the 2021 general elections

Although Abiy’s overtures and reform efforts were welcomed and applauded by many, not everyone in Ethiopia was ready to accept such change, which allowed simmering ethnic tensions to be brought to the fore. At a rally in June 2018, a grenade was launched at the stage where Abiy was present; he escaped unscathed, but two people were killed and scores more injured. In June 2019, in what the government labeled a failed coup attempt centered in the Amhara region, several high-ranking officials were killed.

In late 2019 Abiy advocated for the four constituent parties of the EPRDF to dissolve the coalition and replace it with one party that would also include some of the smaller ethnic groups that had not been part of the EPRDF. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which had long been the dominant member of the EPRDF coalition before Abiy took office, had already seen its power diminish under Abiy’s prime ministership, and it now took issue with the coalition dissolution process and refused to participate. Nonetheless, the EPRDF was dissolved, and Abiy formed the Prosperity Party, which included the other three parties that had been part of the EPRDF as well as several smaller, ethnic-based parties that had opted to disband and join Abiy’s new party. With the 2020 general elections officially postponed because of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, the new party’s mettle was not immediately tested at the polls.

The election delay proved to be a contentious issue in some quarters, with the TPLF and some other opposition leaders accusing Abiy of trying to cling to power past his mandate. In spite of the official postponement, the Tigrayan officials held elections in the Tigray region in September 2020; in response, the federal government began withholding funds from the region the following month. The simmering tensions erupted into combat in early November. Controversially, troops from Eritrea also participated in the conflict, attacking Tigrayan forces. Although Eritrean and Ethiopian officials initially denied that Eritrean troops were involved in the conflict, months later Abiy acknowledged their participation. Fighting between Tigray and the federal government ostensibly ended in November 2022, with the signing of the Pretoria Agreement, although relations between Abiy and the TPLF remained strained. Abiy also faced unrest in other parts of the country, including in Oromia where a rebellion had begun in 2019.

Meanwhile, when the postponed general elections were held in June 2021, the Prosperity Party won an overwhelming majority of parliamentary seats, and the House of Peoples’ Representatives reelected Abiy as prime minister in October.

Ongoing domestic and regional tensions and the 2026 elections

During his next term as prime minister, Abiy was credited for his efforts to liberalize Ethiopia’s economy and presided over a period of growth. However, his administration increasingly came under fire with accusations of human rights violations being committed in rebellious areas and repression against journalists and dissenting voices.

Restive areas within Ethiopia continued to present a challenge for Abiy, with unrest continuing in Oromia as well as in Amhara, where a rebellion began in 2023. There were also clashes between various groups over border disputes, and an escalation of hostilities in 2026 between Abiy’s federal government and the TPLF in Tigray.

Starting in 2023, tensions with Eritrea were at times inflamed as Abiy discussed his landlocked country’s need for access to the Red Sea, which it had previously accessed through the Eritrean port city of Assab before Eritrea had seceded from Ethiopia in 1993. He and other government officials periodically made provocative statements insinuating Ethiopia would reclaim the port city by force if necessary.

General elections were held in June 2026, and Abiy’s Prosperity Party once again won a majority of available seats in the House of Peoples’ Representatives. On October 5, the legislative body reelected Abiy to another term as prime minister and he was sworn in the same day.

Meanwhile, in spite of Abiy’s June legislative victory, he still faced opposition. In September, seven rebel groups, including the TPLF, formed an alliance with the goal of removing Abiy from power. A few days later, Tigrayan forces launched attacks against the federal government in Tigray, and fighting soon spread to the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara.