Can We Predict Natural Disasters?

At 4:53 PM on January 12, 2010, a 7.0-magnitude earthquake hit Haiti, followed by two large aftershocks on the same day and many smaller ones throughout the next two weeks. Over 220,000 people died, and more than one million were left homeless. Natural disasters are catastrophic geological or meteorological events that often cause many deaths and severely damage human health, the environment, property, and infrastructure. Some natural disasters, such as hurricanes or wildfires, have “seasons.” Some, like earthquakes, can happen at any time. Different types of natural disasters can be more common in specific regions. For example, in the U.S., tornadoes most frequently occur in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska—a region known as “Tornado Alley.” Although more advanced early warning systems and disaster management have significantly lowered the number of deaths resulting from natural disasters, there is still much to improve. Lower-income and non-white communities in the U.S. are often hit hardest by natural disasters because they have fewer resources for preparation and recovery. Many developing countries don’t have adequate early warning systems or the financial means to rebuild after a natural disaster. Weather-related natural disasters are occurring more often now, as climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Protecting against natural disasters requires a multipronged approach. Building resistant infrastructure and providing resources before a disaster strikes, as well as investing in better forecasting systems, can help save more lives.