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Why must a nuclear threat be credible to deter an adversary?
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nuclear strategy
The explosion from the first thermonuclear weapon (hydrogen bomb), code-named Mike, which was detonated at Enewetak atoll in the Marshall Islands, November 1, 1952. The photograph was taken at an altitude of 3,600 metres (12,000 feet) 80 km (50 miles) from the detonation site.
In the context of military deterrence, a nuclear threat must be credible to effectively preclude an adversary from initiating an attack. The core premise of this strategy is that a state must possess the visible and believable capability to inflict unacceptable damage on an aggressor, even after surviving a surprise first strike.1
Credibility is essential for two primary reasons:
- Capability: An adversary must perceive that the target power has a secure second strike capability—the technical ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons despite suffering significant initial damage.12
- Will: Deterrence relies on the aggressor’s uncertainty regarding the target's resolve. While the certainty of retaliation is not required, the perceived possibility that a state will respond—even at the risk of further, crippling damage—creates the necessary hesitation to prevent aggression.1
Ultimately, this strategy aims to maintain a balance of power by ensuring that the potential costs of an attack are viewed as prohibitively high, thereby discouraging conflict.12