Why does post hoc ergo propter hoc confuse a sequence of events with causation?
The fallacy post hoc ergo propter hocāLatin for "after this, therefore because of this"āconfuses a simple temporal sequence with a causal connection. It occurs when an individual incorrectly assumes that because one event preceded another, the first event must have caused the second.123
This error is categorized as a type of "false cause" fallacy (non causa pro causa). It fails to account for the fact that correlation does not equal causation; simply observing that two events occurred in succession provides no logical evidence that the former produced the latter. For example, attributing a misfortune to a preceding event, such as breaking a mirror, is a classic instance of this logical mistake. By relying solely on the order of events rather than investigating the actual mechanisms of influence, the argument presumes a relationship that has not been demonstrated.43