Why do some analysts question the estimate that 400 million births were prevented?

While the Chinese government officially estimated that the one-child policy prevented approximately 400 million births, some analysts dispute this figure.12

The skepticism arises because the estimate is often viewed as an oversimplification that may not fully account for other factors influencing demographic trends. During the period the policy was in effect, China was experiencing significant socioeconomic changes, including rising levels of education, urbanization, and improvements in healthcare, all of which historically contribute to declining fertility rates independently of government mandates. Consequently, critics argue that the government's figure may attribute a decline in births entirely to the policy while failing to isolate the impact of these broader developmental shifts.13