Why can ethnic nationalism become dangerous during political uncertainty?

Ethnic nationalism becomes particularly dangerous during periods of political uncertainty because it relies on exclusionary ideologies that thrive when state stability is compromised. In such volatile environments, political leaders and elites often exploit these tensions to consolidate power or mobilize support.12

The risks associated with this dynamic include:

• Manipulation by Elites: Leaders may use scapegoating, hate speech, and media manipulation to heighten discord between groups, effectively "playing the ethnic card" to advance their own political agendas.13
• Exclusionary Ideologies: When citizenship is defined strictly through ethnic distinctions rather than inclusive civic participation, it marginalizes minority groups and fosters deep-seated resentment.1
• Escalation of Conflict: Political uncertainty often creates a power vacuum where organized groups may perceive that violent action is a feasible way to secure resources, territory, or self-determination.21

Ultimately, these factors can transform manageable societal differences into violent struggles, leading to severe human rights violations and the potential for state failure. It is a fundamental ethical imperative to reject ideologies that promote exclusion and violence, as they threaten the safety and dignity of all individuals within a society.6