What is the pessimistic induction from the history of science?

The pessimistic induction from the history of science is an antirealist argument formulated by the philosopher Larry Laudan. It challenges the realist claim that the success of contemporary scientific theories provides evidence for their truth.1

Laudan observed that the history of science is replete with theories that were once considered highly successful but have since been proven false. Furthermore, many of these discarded theories utilized theoretical terms that are now recognized as failing to refer to any actual entities in nature.1

Based on this pattern, Laudan argued that if past scientists were mistaken in concluding that their successful theories were true, there is no logical basis to assume that contemporary scientists are correct when they infer the truth of their own successful theories. By generalizing from the failure of past theories to the likely failure of current ones, the pessimistic induction suggests that our present scientific understanding is also likely to be incorrect.1