How does the probability of identical alleles compare for children of aunt-nephew unions and first-cousin unions?

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The probability of a child inheriting a pair of identical alleles—known as the coefficient of inbreeding (F)—varies based on the degree of consanguinity between the parents.

The likelihood of identical alleles is determined by the shared ancestry of the parents. For children of these unions, the probabilities are as follows:

  • Aunt-nephew unions: The probability of a child inheriting a pair of identical alleles is 1 in 8 (or 0.125).1
  • First-cousin unions: The probability of a child inheriting a pair of identical alleles is 1 in 16 (or 0.0625).12

As the degree of consanguinity becomes more remote, the likelihood of inheriting identical alleles derived from a common ancestor is halved with each subsequent degree. Consequently, the offspring of an aunt-nephew union face a higher probability of homozygosity by descent compared to the offspring of first cousins.12