How does group rivalry lead to military mobilization in ethnic conflicts?

In the context of ethnic conflict, group rivalry leads to military mobilization when political, economic, or territorial competition escalates beyond conventional politics. Mobilization often occurs during periods of significant social or political change, where uncertainty and perceived threats to a group’s identity or survival create opportunities for action.123

Military mobilization is driven by several key factors:

• Elite Manipulation: Leaders and elites often exploit existing discord through hate speech, scapegoating, and media manipulation to unify populations and justify armed struggle.32
• Structural Exclusion: When ethnic groups lack representation in political institutions or face discriminatory legislation, they may turn to rebellion as a perceived necessity for self-determination or protection.3
• Group Cohesion: Shared experiences of discrimination, historical grievances, and the promotion of cultural narratives strengthen group identity, making collective military action more feasible.2
• Strategic Opportunity: Mobilization is more likely when groups are organized, possess the capacity for action, and believe that achieving their goals—such as autonomy or resource control—is a realistic outcome.32

Ultimately, when political systems fail to provide peaceful avenues for expressing grievances, rivalry can transform into organized armed conflict.32