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How do causal inferences identify possible causes of events?
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Applied logic
Aristotle, marble portrait bust, Roman copy (2nd century bce) of a Greek original (c. 325 bce); in the Museo Nazionale Romano, Rome.
Causal inference identifies potential causes by analyzing patterns of association and variation between events. In applied logic, this process often relies on John Stuart Mill’s five methods of experimental reasoning:1
- Method of Agreement: Identifies factors present whenever the effect occurs.1
- Method of Difference: Compares instances where the effect occurs to similar instances where it does not, isolating factors present only in the former.1
- Joint Method: Combines agreement and difference for greater reliability.1
- Method of Residues: Attributes the remaining part of an effect to remaining circumstances after accounting for known causes.1
- Method of Concomitant Variation: Observes if variations in a factor correlate with variations in the effect.1
While correlation is a useful tool, it is not equivalent to causation, as associations can sometimes be coincidental. Philosophers like David Hume noted that we often infer causation based on the constant conjunction and temporal succession of events, though this remains a central challenge in the problem of induction.23