How did the number of new civil wars change after the Cold War?

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Following the Cold War, many experts initially anticipated a surge in global instability and violence, leading to an immediate peak in the outbreak of new civil wars. However, contrary to these expectations, the number of new civil wars actually declined in relative terms after this initial period.1

While the absolute number of ongoing civil conflicts remains high, the trend of new outbreaks has decreased. The specific underlying causes for this decline remain a subject of scholarly dispute. It is important to note that despite this relative decline in new conflicts, civil wars remain more frequent and longer-lasting than interstate wars, and they continue to account for the majority of battle-related deaths globally.1