How can political exclusion of ethnic groups lead to violent conflict?

Political exclusion of ethnic groups is a significant driver of violent conflict, as it often creates deep-seated grievances and limits avenues for peaceful resolution. Contrary to the assumption that ethnic diversity itself causes conflict, research indicates that violence is more likely when states systematically exclude specific groups from political power or discriminate against them.123

When political institutions are exclusionary—particularly in authoritarian regimes that lack mechanisms for consensus or representation—ethnic groups may find that their only means to secure rights, resources, or autonomy is through organized violence. This process is often exacerbated by:132

• Exclusionary Ideologies: Nationalisms based on ethnic distinctions or supremacist beliefs can justify the marginalization of others.3
• Elite Manipulation: Leaders may use hate speech, scapegoating, and media control to heighten intergroup tensions for political gain.3
• Lack of Peaceful Avenues: In systems where nonviolent protest is repressed, groups may resort to arms to challenge their subordination.12

Ultimately, violent conflict is most probable when groups perceive a tangible threat of suppression and believe that organized action is a feasible way to achieve their political objectives.3