How are runs scored and runs allowed connected to a team’s winning percentage?

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Green retro manual baseball scoreboard beyond an empty, neatly mowed baseball field with brown infield dirt and striped grass outfield. — Sabermetrics A scoreboard provides some – but not necessarily the most useful – data on player and team performances in baseball.

In sabermetrics, the connection between a team’s runs scored, runs allowed, and its success is defined by the Pythagorean winning percentage.

Developed by Bill James, this concept establishes a direct and empirical relationship between a team's run differential and its actual win-loss record. By analyzing the ratio of runs scored to runs allowed, one can derive a team’s expected winning percentage, which serves as a reliable indicator of how many games a team "should" have won based on its offensive and defensive performance.1

This formula demonstrates that a team's ability to outscore its opponents is the primary driver of its success, providing a mathematical framework to evaluate whether a team's performance is consistent with its underlying run production and prevention capabilities.1