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Why is incidence useful for evaluating HIV prevention programs?

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Know the investigations of researchers using genomic information to reconstruct the cause and transmission routes of the bubonic plague and the Black Death — epidemiology Researchers using genomic information to trace the transmission routes in past epidemics of plague.

In epidemiology, incidence refers to the occurrence of new cases of a disease within a specific population over a defined period of time.12

Evaluating HIV prevention programs relies on incidence because it provides a direct measure of whether the virus is actively spreading. By tracking the number of new HIV infections, researchers and public health officials can determine if prevention strategies—such as preexposure prophylaxis, condom use, or behavioral interventions—are effectively reducing the risk of transmission.23

Unlike prevalence, which counts both new and existing cases and is more reflective of the total burden of disease, incidence specifically captures the rate at which uninfected individuals are transitioning to an infected state. Consequently, a decline in incidence serves as a critical indicator that prevention efforts are successfully interrupting the transmission of the virus.12