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Why do climate descriptions include extreme events and variability as well as averages?
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Climate
Even in our warming world, there will be some chilly evenings.
Climate descriptions include more than just long-term averages because a complete understanding of the atmosphere requires accounting for its inherent variability and the impact of extreme events.21
While climate is defined as the synthesis of weather conditions over a long period—typically 30 years or more—relying solely on averages can be misleading. Including variability and extremes is essential for several reasons:23
- Predictive Accuracy: Theoretical climate models must account for internal variability, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), to accurately simulate atmospheric behavior and predict future trends.13
- Ecological and Human Impact: Specialized plants and animals often evolve to survive within specific climate ranges; sudden shifts or extreme events like droughts or flooding can threaten their survival. For humans, these extremes pose significant risks to food production, infrastructure, and public health.23
- Contextualizing Change: Because weather is naturally volatile, people may mistakenly view minor climate shifts as insignificant. Documenting extremes helps clarify the severity of changes that occur when once-predictable patterns become more volatile.2