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How does the Space Weather Prediction Center forecast geomagnetic storms?

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Space weather Earth's full North Polar auroral oval, in an image taken in ultraviolet light by the U.S. Polar spacecraft over northern Canada, April 6, 1996. In the colour-coded image, which simultaneously shows dayside and nightside auroral activity, the most intense levels of activity are red, and the lowest levels are blue. Polar, launched in February 1996, was designed to further scientists' understanding of how plasma energy contained in the solar wind interacts with Earth's magnetosphere.

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, forecasts geomagnetic storms by monitoring solar activity in real time.1

To gather the necessary data, the SWPC utilizes a combination of ground-based observatories and satellites. These satellites are strategically positioned in geosynchronous orbit and at the first Lagrangian point, where they measure charged particles as well as interplanetary and solar magnetic fields.1

By integrating these real-time observations with empirical models of Earth’s space environment, scientists can predict the arrival of solar disturbances—such as coronal mass ejections—that trigger geomagnetic storms. These forecasts are essential for protecting critical infrastructure, including power grids, satellite communications, and navigation systems, as well as ensuring the safety of astronauts operating outside the protection of Earth's magnetic field.12