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How does global warming affect crop productivity in tropical and temperate regions?

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Grinnell Glacier shrinkage — Global warming A series of photographs of the Grinnell Glacier taken from the summit of Mount Gould in Glacier National Park, Montana, in (from left) 1938, 1981, 1998, and 2006. In 1938 the Grinnell Glacier filled the entire area at the bottom of the image. By 2006 it had largely disappeared from this view.

Global warming affects crop productivity differently depending on the region, with models predicting distinct outcomes for temperate and tropical zones.1

Temperate Regions

In temperate regions, agricultural productivity may experience a modest increase for certain crops in response to local warming of 1–3 °C (1.8–5.4 °F). However, this benefit is expected to diminish as temperatures rise further, eventually leading to a general decrease in productivity. Additionally, these regions face challenges from altered water availability, such as earlier spring runoff from snow-fed rivers, and increased risks of drought and flooding due to shifting precipitation patterns and higher evaporation rates.12

Tropical and Subtropical Regions

For tropical and subtropical regions, models consistently predict decreases in crop productivity even with small increases in local warming. These areas are particularly vulnerable to the increased incidence of drought and flood events, which threaten both crop yields and livestock production, especially among subsistence farmers. In regions like the African Sahel, productivity declines have already been observed due to shortened growing seasons caused by warmer and drier conditions.1