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How do climate models explain cooling during the Little Ice Age?

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Line graph showing estimated temperature variations from 1000 to 2000 CE for the Northern Hemisphere and central England, with three lines representing different data sources. The chart highlights the medieval warm period around 1100-1300 and the Little Ice Age from about 1500 to 1850, followed by a sharp temperature rise in the late 20th century. Temperature is shown as deviations from the 1961-1990 average. — Little Ice Age Estimates of temperature variations for the Northern Hemisphere and central England from 1000 to 2000 ce.

Climate models explain the cooling observed during the Little Ice Age (roughly 1400–1850) by simulating the Earth's response to external radiative forcing and internal climate variability.1

Through these simulations, researchers have successfully reproduced the magnitude and spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere cooling during this period. Models indicate that this cooling resulted from a combination of two primary factors:

Reduced Solar Output: Periods of low sunspot activity, such as the Spörer Minimum and the Maunder Minimum, led to less energy reaching the Earth's surface.21
Heightened Volcanic Activity: Explosive volcanism injected sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, which reflected incoming solar radiation and caused global cooling.213

While climate models are complex and must use statistical methods to represent sub-grid-scale processes like clouds, they have demonstrated significant success in attributing the Little Ice Age's temperature declines to these natural influences.1