How did a negative North Atlantic Oscillation phase affect northern Europe?

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During the Little Ice Age, the dominance of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) significantly altered the climate of northern Europe.12

In this negative mode, the pressure cells over Iceland and the Azores are weak, which reduces the pressure gradient across the North Atlantic. This weakening slows the pace of the prevailing westerly winds that typically transport warm, moist maritime air into Europe. Consequently, the region experiences the following effects:123

  • Colder Temperatures: The reduced westerly flow allows cold, dry air to be drawn into northern Europe from the Arctic and northern Russia.12
  • Drier Conditions: Because the storm track is redirected toward the Mediterranean, northern Europe receives less precipitation than normal during these winters.12
  • Increased Variability: The shift contributed to the overall climate instability of the period, characterized by long, cold winters and short, wet summers, which frequently led to crop failures and famines across northern and central Europe.2