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How can records of past events help scientists estimate the chance of future disturbances?

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ecological disturbance caused by forest fire — ecological disturbance Aerial view of the remains of trees on a hillside after a forest fire.

Scientists estimate the likelihood of future ecological disturbances by analyzing time series data, which consists of records of past occurrences to determine the probability of an event happening over a long interval.1

By examining these historical patterns, researchers can assign probabilities to specific events. For instance, geologists use such data to assess the risk of earthquakes in regions like the Pacific Ring of Fire, while meteorologists calculate the probability of rare events, such as a 100-year snowstorm.1

However, predicting disturbances of biological origin remains significantly more challenging due to the vast complexity of species interactions and the frequent involvement of poorly understood or unknown microorganisms. Furthermore, management efforts are complicated by climate change and the compounding effects of multiple disturbances occurring within an ecosystem's expected recovery time, which can lead to unpredictable, alternative states.1