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How can a longer growing season partly offset carbon emissions from tundra fires and thawing permafrost?

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Rolling tundra in Alaska with red, yellow, and green fall foliage, set against rugged mountains with patches of grass and exposed rock. — Tundra Alaskan mountain and tundra vegetation in the fall.

A longer, warmer growing season can partly offset carbon emissions from thawing permafrost and tundra fires by increasing plant productivity.1

As temperatures rise, the extended period of favorable conditions allows for greater plant growth, which can sequester more carbon through photosynthesis. This increased vegetation acts as a potential sink, helping to balance the carbon released when warming temperatures expose organic matter to microbial decomposition or when wildfires burn through the landscape.1

However, scientists remain uncertain about the future of the Arctic carbon cycle. There is significant concern that the net transfer of greenhouse gases from the tundra to the atmosphere—driven by permafrost thaw and fire—could trigger a positive feedback loop, where the release of stored carbon further accelerates global warming.1