Climate scientists suggest that 2026 will be an El Niño year, and they show increasing evidence that an unusually strong event could occur. El Niño episodes are determined using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which measures the departure from normal sea surface temperature in the east-central Pacific Ocean. Episodes are indicated by temperature increases of more than 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) for at least five successive overlapping three-month seasons. In early 2026, scientists monitored the development of a large pool of warm water in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, which is one of the hallmarks of the onset of an El Niño episode.
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