Why do most historians believe that the Mukden Incident was planned by the Japanese army?

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Map of eastern Asia highlighting Manchuria in northeastern China, which includes the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, and part of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The highlighted area borders Russia, Mongolia, and North Korea. — Manchuria The historical region of Manchuria shown with the boundaries of the modern-day Chinese provinces in its place as well as the portion of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region that is often considered part of Manchuria.

Historians and contemporary observers widely conclude that the Mukden Incident was a staged event orchestrated by the Japanese Kwantung Army to provide a pretext for the invasion of Manchuria.1

Evidence for this conclusion includes:

Lack of Authorization: The operation was initiated by officers of the Kwantung Army without the approval or knowledge of the Japanese civil government in Tokyo.1
Disproportionate Pretext: The incident involved a small explosion on the South Manchurian Railway that caused minimal damage, allowing trains to continue running. Despite this, the Japanese army used the event to justify immediate, large-scale artillery attacks on a nearby Chinese garrison.1
Independent Expansion: Even after the Japanese government issued a nonexpansion policy, the Kwantung Army continued to occupy the region, demonstrating that the military was acting independently of state authority.1
International Investigation: The Lytton Commission, established by the League of Nations to investigate the conflict, formally labeled Japan as the aggressor.1