How did the Syrian civil war affect Lebanon’s economic growth after 2011?

The outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011 significantly hindered Lebanon’s economic growth, reversing the positive trends observed in the preceding years.1

The impact manifested in several key ways:

• Economic Dependence: Lebanon’s economy was closely integrated with Syria’s through various trade and economic agreements established after the end of Lebanon’s own civil war. The instability in Syria disrupted these ties, negatively affecting Lebanon’s commercial environment.21
• Refugee Influx: The conflict triggered a massive influx of refugees into Lebanon, which placed severe strain on the country’s infrastructure, including the housing sector.13
• Growth Slowdown: Following a period where gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 8 percent between 2007 and 2010, the rate slowed to less than 2 percent annually from 2011 to 2017.1

This economic downturn, compounded by political corruption and rising public debt, eroded consumer and investor confidence, ultimately contributing to the severe financial crisis and widespread demonstrations that emerged in 2019.1