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How could a weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation affect rain belts in southern Africa?

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Map of the North Atlantic Ocean showing major ocean currents, with warm currents like the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift highlighted in pink and cold currents in blue. Arrows indicate current directions and relative speeds, connecting the eastern coasts of North America, the western coasts of Europe and Africa, and the Arctic region. — Gulf Stream Major warm and cold currents of the North Atlantic Ocean.

A weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could significantly disrupt regional climate patterns, including the positioning of rain belts in southern Africa.12

Scientific models suggest that as the AMOC slows—a process driven by reduced surface water salinity from melting glaciers—it alters the global distribution of heat. This shift in heat regulation is expected to cause a relocation of rain belts across southern Africa, which could lead to an increase in both the frequency and duration of drought across large portions of the continent.2

These rain belts are typically governed by the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a belt of converging trade winds and rising air that shifts seasonally. Because the ITCZ is a primary control for precipitation in tropical climate zones, any disruption to the atmospheric and oceanic processes that dictate its movement can have profound consequences for regional water availability and agricultural stability.342