Lawrence R. Klein

Lawrence R. Kleinwas an American economist whose work in developing macroeconometric models for national, regional, and world economies won him the 1980 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences.

After graduating from the University of California, Berkeley, in 1942, Klein studied under economist Paul Samuelson at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, taking a Ph.D. in 1944. From 1944 to 1947 he was involved in econometric research at the University of Chicago, and from 1948 to 1950 he was on the staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Subsequently he was associated with the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan (1949–54) and the Institute of Statistics at the University of Oxford (1954–58). Klein joined the faculty of the University of Pennsylvania in 1958 and later became Benjamin Franklin Professor of Economics and Finance at the university’s Wharton School (1968–91; later emeritus). Klein was one of the pioneers in building macroeconomic models. One of his earliest successes was in forecasting economic conditions at the end of World War II. Whereas many economists speculated that the war’s end would bring another depression, Klein predicted that the unsatisfied demand for consumer goods throughout the war, combined with the purchasing power of returning soldiers, would likely prevent a depression; his prediction was right.

Klein’s research produced a series of increasingly detailed and sophisticated models of economic activity. The Wharton Models found wide use in forecasting gross national product, exports, investment, and consumption. A more ambitious effort, the LINK project, incorporated data gathered from a large number of industrialized, centrally planned, and developing countries to forecast trade and capital movements and to test the effects of proposed changes in political and economic policies. The project is discussed in the 1995 book Economics, Econometrics and the LINK, edited by Manoranjan Dutta.