Why did some Israeli officials believe Hamas was deterred before October 7, 2023?

Before October 7, 2023, many officials in Israel’s defense establishment believed that Hamas had been effectively deterred by years of conflict and that any future flare-ups would remain manageable. This perspective was reinforced by several factors:1

• History of Conflict: Following major escalations in 2008, 2012, 2014, and 2021, Israel generally considered the security threat from Hamas to be contained.12
• "Money for Quiet": During Benjamin Netanyahu’s tenure as prime minister (2009–2021), a strategy emerged involving ceasefire arrangements that temporarily eased the blockade of the Gaza Strip and facilitated the transfer of foreign aid. Critics within Israel referred to this approach as "money for quiet," as it was intended to maintain stability.1
• Perceived Pragmatism: In 2022, Hamas remained on the sidelines during a violent confrontation between Israel and other Palestinian militant groups. This led many foreign affairs analysts to believe that a pragmatic relationship was developing between Hamas and Israel.1

Ultimately, this belief in deterrence proved to be a tragic miscalculation, as Hamas launched a massive, coordinated assault on October 7, 2023.13