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Why did Stalin initially hesitate to approve an invasion of South Korea?

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In early 1949, when Kim Il-Sung first proposed a conventional invasion of South Korea, Soviet leader Joseph Stalin initially refused to approve the plan.1

Stalin’s hesitation was driven by two primary concerns:

  • Military Unpreparedness: He was worried that the North Korean armed forces were not yet sufficiently prepared to conduct a successful offensive.1
  • Geopolitical Risk: He feared that an invasion could trigger direct United States military involvement in the conflict.1

Over the following year, the communist leadership addressed these concerns by building the Korean People's Army into a formidable force modeled after a Soviet mechanized army, supported by Soviet armaments and the return of Korean veterans from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. By 1950, after North Korea had gained a significant equipment advantage over the South, Stalin finally approved the invasion.1