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Why did Operation Bagration take German forces by surprise?
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Eastern Front
Red Army soldier waving the Soviet flag during the Battle of Stalingrad.
Operation Bagration caught German forces by surprise primarily due to the effectiveness of Soviet operational security and a critical miscalculation regarding the location of the offensive.
While the Red Army successfully assembled 166 divisions on the Belorussian front, German intelligence failed to anticipate the strike in that sector, expecting the assault to occur farther south instead. By maintaining tight security during this massive buildup, the Soviets were able to launch their offensive across a 450-mile front on June 23, 1944, achieving total tactical surprise against the German military, which was already in a state of irreversible decline.1