How did NATO air strikes change the course of the Bosnian War?

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NATO air strikes played a decisive role in shifting the momentum of the Bosnian War toward a negotiated settlement. While initial NATO actions in 1994—such as shooting down aircraft violating the no-fly zone and conducting isolated, ineffective strikes—had limited impact, the strategy evolved significantly by late 1995.12

Following the Srebrenica massacre and a subsequent Bosnian Serb attack on a Sarajevo marketplace, NATO launched a campaign of concentrated air strikes against Bosnian Serb targets. These strikes, combined with a large-scale land offensive by Bosniak-Croat forces, fundamentally altered the balance of power on the ground.12

The military pressure exerted by these coordinated actions compelled Bosnian Serb leaders to agree to U.S.-sponsored peace talks. This shift in momentum directly facilitated the Dayton Accords in November 1995, which established a federalized state and brought an end to the conflict.12