Why did Klemens von Metternich underestimate the strength of Napoleon’s position in 1808?

Klemens von Metternich overestimated the impact that the Spanish rising of 1808 would have on the Napoleonic system. While the insurrection in Spain and Portugal dealt a blow to Napoleon’s prestige and created a continental bridgehead for the British, Metternich’s optimistic assessment of the situation led him to believe that the French position was more vulnerable than it actually was.12

These reports were significant because they helped induce Austria to initiate the war of 1809 against France. This conflict ultimately proved disastrous for Austria, resulting in a defeat at the Battle of Wagram and the subsequent signing of the oppressive Treaty of Schönbrunn.1