Why did German leaders think a firm response to Serbia might prevent a wider war?

German leaders, including William II and Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg, initially believed that a firm stance against Serbia following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand would deter other powers from intervening, thereby preventing a wider conflict. They assumed that a display of resolve would lead the other Great Powers to back down, as had occurred during previous diplomatic crises.12

However, as the situation escalated, the German government’s perspective shifted due to a growing pessimism regarding the long-term strategic position of the Central Powers. German leadership concluded that time was working in favor of the Triple Entente, particularly as Russia recovered from its earlier military defeats. Consequently, they adopted the view that if a general European war was inevitable, it was strategically advantageous for it to occur sooner rather than later. They hoped for a localized conflict that would result in a quick victory for Austria-Hungary, but they were prepared for a broader war, believing the German public would support the effort if it appeared that tsarist Russia bore the responsibility for the escalation.23