Why did Bismarck and Helmuth von Moltke believe Prussia could defeat France in 1870?

Otto von Bismarck and Helmuth von Moltke believed Prussia could defeat France in 1870 due to the superior organization, mobility, and military efficiency of the Prussian army, which had been significantly refined following the Seven Weeks' War in 1866.12

By the end of 1869, Moltke and Minister of War Albrecht von Roon advised Bismarck that the Prussian army was capable of victory. Their confidence was rooted in several key factors:1

• Strategic Mobility: Moltke had revolutionized warfare by utilizing railways for the rapid deployment and supply of large-scale forces, allowing for wide turning movements rather than limited flank attacks.1
• Command Structure: Moltke instituted a system of general directives, granting subordinates considerable initiative and discretion, which was essential for managing massive armies spread across long battlefronts.1
• Superior Organization: The Prussian General Staff ensured the orderly movement of troops, which contrasted sharply with the confusion and supply delays experienced by the French.12
• Numerical Superiority: Bismarck correctly anticipated that the South German states would side with Prussia, viewing France as the aggressor.2