How did the term Thucydides trap become associated with rivalry between powerful states?

The term "Thucydides trap" refers to a situation in which a dominant power’s fear of a rising power makes conflict appear inevitable. This concept is derived from the writings of the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who famously observed that the growth of Athenian power and the alarm this inspired in Sparta made the Peloponnesian War unavoidable.12

While Thucydides provided this analysis in his historical account of the 5th-century BCE conflict, the specific label "Thucydides trap" was popularized by political scientist Graham Allison in the early 2010s. Allison utilized the term to describe the recurring historical pattern where the structural stress caused by a shift in the balance of power between an established hegemon and an emerging challenger can lead to antagonism or war.1

In contemporary international relations, the term is most frequently applied to the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, serving as a framework for leaders and analysts to discuss the challenges of managing competition without descending into catastrophic conflict.1