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How did Polybius use the idea of Tyche or Fortune to explain historical events?

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Marble statue of Polybius seated with one arm raised, draped in classical robes, against a blue sky in Vienna, Austria. The base is inscribed with the name Polybius. — Polybius Polybius, statue in Vienna.

For the historian Polybius, the concept of Tyche (Fortune) serves as a unifying force in his narrative of Rome’s rapid rise to power. While Polybius generally emphasizes causation and rational analysis in his work, he utilizes the idea of Fortune to explain the unprecedented way in which global affairs became interconnected after 220 BCE.1

Polybius describes Fortune as a directive power that guided the world’s disparate events toward a single goal: the establishment of Roman dominion. By framing history as an organic whole, he argues that the historian’s task is to provide a synoptic view of the operations through which Fortune accomplished this purpose.1

His use of the term is nuanced and sometimes inconsistent. While he occasionally employs it to describe pure chance or follows common Hellenistic conventions, he also treats it as a purposeful providence that elevated Rome—a rise he suggests was deserved. Ultimately, Polybius maintains that studying history helps individuals bear the "vicissitudes of fortune" by learning from the disasters of others, reinforcing his belief that history should be a didactic tool for political and military education.1