How did Angela Merkel’s refugee policy affect support for the Alternative for Germany?

Angela Merkel’s refugee policy significantly bolstered support for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party that capitalized on the public backlash against her decision to keep borders open during the 2015 humanitarian crisis.12

When more than one million migrants entered Germany in 2015, the AfD shifted its primary focus from Euroskepticism to an explicitly anti-immigration and anti-Islamic platform. By characterizing the influx of refugees—many of whom were from Syria and practiced Islam—as an "invasion," the party successfully tapped into rising populist and xenophobic sentiments.341

This political shift had tangible electoral consequences for Merkel’s government:
* Electoral Gains: The AfD’s rhetoric helped it secure enough votes to enter the federal parliament in 2017, while Merkel’s conservative alliance (CDU-CSU) suffered its worst electoral showing in nearly seven decades.41
* Regional Impact: The party achieved notable success in regional elections, including placing ahead of the CDU in Merkel’s home state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in 2016.1
* Political Erosion: The ongoing debate over immigration policy caused internal friction within Merkel’s coalition and contributed to a long-term decline in support for Germany’s traditional mainstream parties.1